ANALYSIS OF FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND ITS IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OVER THE MIGHTY MOUNTAIN RANGES (HIMALAYA, KARAKORAM AND HINDUKUSH) OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN, PAKISTAN

Abstract

Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a meeting point of three mighty mountain ranges, the Himalayas, the Karakoram and the Hindu Kush. As this region feeds the Indus River and fulfills the water requirements of Pakistan, so, there is a dire need to foresee the future climate changes in this region. The aim of this study is to project the temperature and precipitation changes over the HKH region according to two sets of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Both RCPs (4.5 & 8.5) projected an increase in average monthly, seasonal as well as annual temperature for both the near future and midcentury periods with a rate of 0.2^oC and 0.6^oC per decade simultaneously. For RCP 4.5 an increasing precipitation of 0.54 mm per year and for RCP 8.5 a decreasing precipitation of -0.70 mm per year was projected for the 21^st century. Both RCPs projected the highest change in winter temperature during the near and the midcentury period. Both RCPs show a slight seasonal shift in precipitation, however, more precipitation is projected for the season March to May (MAM) and less for the season September to November (SON). These changes ultimately affect the water flow in the mighty Indus River and its tributaries.