GIS AND REMOTE SENSING-BASED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY, URBAN EXPANSION, AND POPULATION MIGRATION IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, which are increasingly influencing patterns of urban expansion and population migration. This study examined the interrelationships among Climate Change Vulnerability (CCV), Population Migration (PM), and Urban Expansion (UE) using GIS and Remote Sensing-based spatial analysis. Grounded in Human–Environment Interaction Theory, a quantitative spatial research design was employed using multi-temporal satellite imagery (2005–2025) and secondary demographic datasets. Land use and land cover changes were analyzed through supervised classification, while climate vulnerability indicators such as land surface temperature and vegetation indices were used to assess environmental stress. The findings revealed a significant increase in urban expansion alongside declining vegetation cover and rising climate vulnerability. Population migration was found to significantly mediate the relationship between climate vulnerability and urban growth, indicating that environmental stress drives rural-to-urban movement, which accelerates urban sprawl. The study concludes that climate change is a key structural driver of spatial transformation in Pakistan. The integration of GIS and Remote Sensing provides a robust framework for understanding these dynamics and supports evidence-based urban and environmental planning.