COMPARATIVE FLOOD RISK MODELING AND SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT USING THE 2025 PAKISTAN FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS MULTIPLE PROVINCES

Abstract

The article presents a comparative flood risk modeling and socioeconomic vulnerable assessment of the 2025 floods in the three largest provinces in Pakistan; Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhaw (KPK). The quantitative elements used include intensity of rainfall, extent of flooding and level of poverty to determine the regional difference in the impacts of floods. As the findings reveal, Sindh experienced the highest rainfall (420 mm) that is 38 percent of the total precipitation and the biggest area flooded (7,800 sq km) that is 45 percent of the total inundation. Furthermore, Sindh had the highest level of poverty (37%), which predisposes it to a tremendous degree. Punjab on the other hand recorded the minimal contribution to rainfall (29%), least area flooded (25%), and lowest poverty rate (24%) and this implies that it is not as risky. KPK had moderate values in all the indicators with contribution to rainfall of 33 percent and flooded area and poverty rate of 30 percent and 29 percent respectively. The fact that Sindh was the most vulnerable province (42%), KPK (31) and Punjab (27) was further established in the composite index of the flood risk. The model-based analysis resulted in the estimation of a probability of 78, 65 and 55 floods in Sindh, KPK, and Punjab respectively. The study concludes that the environment and socioeconomic status influence the flood risk. These findings imply that there is a need to have combined flood management strategies that are sensitive to both the physical infrastructure and social susceptibility to enhance resiliency to disasters.