ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING OF FOSSIL FUELS AND RENEWABLE SOURCES IN COMPETITIVE POWER MARKETS

Abstract

The seasonal fluctuations and weather problems are the causes of high volatility in electricity prices. The restriction of data, stochastic change in demand and supply, and sensitivity of models further hinder the electricity price forecasting accuracy. Accurate forecasts assist producers, retailers, and consumers optimize the profits and reduce the costs of electricity. The proposed study aims to forecast the electricity price in all continents (Asia, Africa, Europe, America and Oceania) using the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. The results shows that the electricity price statistics of fossil fuels and renewables for the year 2025 and 2030 and presented the country wise analysis in each continent. Solar based electricity will be expensive in Asia (150 USD/MWh) in 2030, wind electricity will be expensive in Africa (230 USD/MWh) in 2030, biomass electricity will be expensive in Asia and Africa with same cost 120 USD/MWh in 2030, nuclear and geothermal electricity will be expensive in Africa with 110 USD/MWh and 105 USD/MWh in 2030. Alongside, coal, natural gas, furnace oil and hydro power will also be expensive in Africa with 130 USD/MWh, 230 USD/MWh, 210 USD/MWh, and 80 USD/MWh respectively in 2030. It is concluded that, this study helps to achieve sustainable electricity price forecast with high accuracy.