FORECASTING LAND USE AND LAND COVER (LULC) CHANGES USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS: A CASE STUDY OF DISTRICT, KHAIRPUR MIRS, SINDH

Abstract

The changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have a significant impact on the regional climatic regimes, hydrological balance, and ecosystem services, thus making them an arduous challenge to the realization of the global sustainable development. These changes have been rapidly accelerated in the District of Khairpur Mirs, Sindh, Pakistan, by the volatility of climatic conditions, agricultural intensification, and high urbanization. In present study, the approach to sustainable land-use planning and environmental stewardship is the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques to evaluate LULC transitions that happened during the past years (2010, 2020, 2022) and to predict the future scenarios up to 2050. Built-up regions, barren terrain, water bodies, agriculture land and forests are the five main LULC categories into which ArcGIS processed and classified Landsat satellite images from 2010 to 2022 and Prediction up to 2050. Spatial and temporal dynamics were assessed using supervised classification, post-classification comparison, and change detection methods, and future land-use trends were simulated using predictive modeling approaches. The Classification/analysis and prediction show the changes in land use/land cover, 1. Forest: A continuous decline from 6% to 1% indicates increasing deforestation and land-use conversion pressure. 2. Water Bodies: An overall reduction from 10% to 2% reflects water scarcity and encroachment impacts. 3. Bare Land: A gradual decrease from 46% to 38% suggests conversion into built-up and agricultural areas. 4.   Built-up Area: A consistent increase from 18% to 39% highlights rapid urban expansion and infrastructure development. 5. Agriculture: Minor fluctuations indicate pressure from urban growth with partial land retention.

This study will be able to provide policy makers and planners with an empirically based model of the possibility of achieving a balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability in the face of global land-use pressures in Khairpur Mirs District to protect the long-term ecological integrity and resource security of the area.