GEOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF GILGIT AND SURROUNDING AREAS, GILGIT-BALTISTAN, PAKISTAN: AN INTEGRATED APPLICATION OF PARTICIPATORY VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND DIGITAL ELEVATION MODELING

Abstract

This study examines the geological and socio-economic vulnerability to earthquakes in Gilgit and its surrounding areas within the Gilgit-Baltistan province. Geological vulnerability indicators include floods, landslides, avalanches, rockfalls, and debris flows, while socio-economic vulnerability is assessed through indicators such as population distribution, housing, educational institutions, industrial activity, tourism, and health facilities. A Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA) approach was employed to conduct field surveys, with a particular focus on community-level and developed infrastructure. Geospatial datasets, including a 30-m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM), supervised land-use and land-cover classification derived from Sentinel satellite imagery with 10-m resolution, and administrative boundary maps, were utilized to support spatial analysis of the field data. Relative risk (RR) values were calculated to assess population and infrastructure exposure to earthquake hazards. The findings indicate that areas with high population and infrastructure density are predominantly located in close proximity to geologically hazard-prone mountainous zones associated with major seismic activity, thereby posing significant risks to human life and socio-economic activities. The most densely populated regions are situated in the central, northern, and southern parts of the study area, which also encompass some of the highest mountain ranges. Overall, the study concludes that both the population and infrastructure of the investigated area face a heightened level of risk from high-magnitude earthquakes (≥6.3), driven by persistent seismic activity in the region.