ASSESSING THE VIABILITY OF TRANSPORT DECARBONIZATION IN PAKISTAN: GRID CONSTRAINTS AND ECONOMIC REALITIES OF EV-HYDROGEN SYNERGY

Abstract

Pakistan faces a dual challenge of meeting growing transport energy demand while reducing dependence on imported diesel and addressing grid capacity constraints. This study presents a modular modelling framework that evaluates the simultaneous integration of electric vehicle (EV) charging and green hydrogen production for heavy-duty transport on Pakistan’s power system. The framework employs generation expansion planning (GEP) to ensure grid adequacy, zonal transmission modelling to identify infrastructure bottlenecks, and calculates levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) under Pakistani economic conditions including foreign exchange volatility and circular debt risk. Results indicate that capacity expansion of 21 GW is required, but zonal analysis reveals that the North-South transmission corridor (currently 4,000 MW) would need to expand to 11,500 MW, trapping 18.4 TWh of renewable energy annually under current constraints. After accounting for induced LNG/coal consumption and imported equipment, net foreign exchange savings are $5.1 billion annually (60% of gross diesel savings). Transmission-constrained LCOH ranges from $5.43 to $9.50 per kg, 15% higher than unconstrained estimates. Policy makers must align transport decarbonization targets with the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP 2022-31). The current IGCEP prioritizes least-cost generation but arguably underestimates the load growth from heavy-duty transport electrification. To avoid stranding assets, the NEPRA grid code regarding 'variable renewable energy (VRE) integration' must be updated to explicitly account for electrolyzers as flexible loads, allowing them to absorb the curtailment often seen in the Southern wind corridors during winter months